India as Worldpower - Reality Check

But let us not lose sight of reality

THE latest Central Intelligence Agency report mentioning that India will be a super power by 2020 is more amusing than true. Nevertheless, it should prompt introspection. The CIA’s aim is to prepare the US for future economic challenges from China and India. The spurt in growth in the two countries is credited to the IMF-World Bank’s reform agenda, which aims to push privatization, deregulate trade and open up markets. The growth story, commendable no doubt, has to be seen in perspective. As is now admitted openly by the Prime Minister, the reforms have not benefited rural India. Hence, his government’s thrust on agriculture and the rural poor. The urban middle class, aided by easy availability of loans, is expanding and lapping up Western-style consumerism, buying whatever is available, with all the attendant consequences.

Here is a reality check: one bad monsoon can destabilize the whole economy. Here is an emerging super power dependent on the rain god! Pressure on land, water and energy resources is growing to dangerous levels. Drinking water is either inadequately available or polluted. Fifty lakh Indians are HIV positive today — progressing from one case in 1986. A vast majority is still illiterate. The government is heavily debt-ridden, burdened with a ballooning fiscal deficit. Institutions required to support a growing state are weakening. Criminals in politics use the administration for personal benefits with a bureaucracy either indifferent to or conniving in the misuse of state power. There is no scam-free financial system. Also, there is not a single global-level financial institution to boast of.

The CIA report recognizes some of these weaknesses. The need is to understand and tackle them as also to build on strengths, which are also well known. China is much ahead of India in sustaining a higher growth rate and attracting foreign investment but it lacks democratic institutions, a reliable political power structure, transparency in economic data and a developed capital market. Both can join hands and, along with other Asian countries, promote common interests to ensure peace and prosperity in the region.

Bye
A Concerned INDIAN